The Washington Commanders had a disappointing start to their preseason, scoring early in the first quarter before falling 20-17 to the New York Jets.
Miami found a way past the Atlanta Falcons in their preseason opener and our Commanders vs Dolphins predictions expect more of the same from the Miami offense.
Find out why we are backing the first half Over as part of our NFL picks for Saturday, August 17.
Commanders vs Dolphins prediction
My best betOver 19.5 — first half (-115 at bet365)
My analysisThe reports out of joint practice this week between these two teams were incredibly kind to Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who threw for five touchdowns against the Miami Dolphins defense and was “on fire” according to those in attendance.
That’s got to have you excited to watch this one, particularly when you consider the Dolphins were nothing more than slightly above average against the pass a season ago and apparently haven’t improved much if we’re to believe what we’re hearing about practice.
Washington will have all of its starters out there for the first quarter at the very least and should put points on the board with a talented wide receiver group complementing an improving run game led by Brian Robinson, Jr. and Austin Ekeler. They hung 10 points on a good Jets defense in the first half last week and the Dolphins, in turn, allowed Atlanta to score 10 points in the first quarter before the starters came out and things settled down.
Miami wound up running up the score in the first half of that win over the Falcons, scoring 17 points in the first half, before we saw just six points between the two sides in the second half. I expect that trend to continue here with the Dolphins’ first-team offense – perhaps the most explosive in the league – drawing the second-worst defense in the league a season ago in yards per play and the fifth-worst in yards per attempt through the air.
Washington allowed a 10-spot to New York in the first half last week, and even if Miami’s starters leave the field for the second quarter I’m very confident in whoever takes the reigns from Tua Tagovailoa given the state of this Commanders’ secondary.
Both teams followed along with the same trends in Week 1 of the preseason, scoring multiple times in the first half while their defense was a bit generous to their opponents, and I like that trend to continue with the way Daniels seems to be rapidly progressing. The first-half Over hit in both of these teams’ preseason openers, and I can’t think of a better way to approach this one than betting on Daniels and a deep Miami offense which should be in a dream spot.
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Commanders vs Dolphins odds
Commanders vs Dolphins live odds
Commanders vs Dolphins opening odds
- Spread: Washington +1.5 (-110) | Miami -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Washington +110 | Miami -130
- Over/Under: Over 35.5 (-110) | Under 35.5 (-110)
Commanders vs Dolphins betting trend to know
Miami has now scored 18 or more points in three of its past four preseason contests while Washington has gone for 17 or more points in its past five. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Dolphins.
Commanders vs Dolphins game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-17, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL+ |
Commanders vs Dolphins weather
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Kenny Ducey
Betting Analyst
Kenny Ducey has worked in sports media for more than 10 years and began his journey as a credentialed reporter with Fordham University’s WFUV Sports before moving on to Sports Illustrated. There, he wrote about baseball, basketball, and tennis – twice covering the NBA Finals.
He’s been in the betting space for seven years, and has established himself as a top expert in MLB and tennis handicapping with brands like Tennis Channel, NBC Sports, and DraftKings. He’s also been a frequent guest on betting shows such as MLB’s Bettor’s Eye and Tennis Bets Live.
Kenny has a knack for identifying underappreciated pitchers and tennis players as moneyline underdogs and credits his unique data analysis and hours of watching sports as the biggest reasons for success through the years. His best advice to bettors? Watch the games, trust your eye, and always question the public narrative.
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